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Yashu Gola is a Mumbai-based finance journalist. He is profoundly active in the bitcoin space since 2014 — and has contributed to several cryptocurrency media outlets, including NewsBTC, FxDailyReport, Bitcoinist, and CCN…
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How will all the chaos in the world impact the price of bitcoin?
Strix Leviathan operates a quantitative digital asset fund taking systematic long and short positions in large-cap digital currencies including bitcoin and ethereum, so our perspective on the global economy doesn’t have a major impact on the day-to-day operation of our business. We do, however, live in a world of news and numbers and the narrative that’s being woven by current news and numbers is important to share. Headquartered in Seattle, Wash., we have been feeling the effects of the first viral hotspot in the U.S. for the last few weeks.
As a GeekWire reader, you’re likely familiar with the coronavirus situation and its broader impact to the global economy. If you’d like a refresher, we’ve done a deep dive on our blog. The abridged version is that the impacts from the coronavirus are just beginning to be felt and will be long lasting. We must flatten the curve of infection to ensure stability of our medical system. The economy is in for a bumpy ride through the remainder of 2020.
We’d like to focus on our area of expertise: cryptocurrency. How will all the chaos in the world impact the price of bitcoin? No one knows. And anyone that claims differently is selling you a bag of goods.
This asset class is experimental and thus entirely speculative, and despite being labeled as a safe haven asset immune from the whims of the global economy, bitcoin did not exist during the 2008 economic crisis. Ironically, it was formed out of the ashes of that spectacle and has existed solely in a risk-on global macro climate. Given that bitcoin has never existed during any form of global financial turmoil, there are zero data points to extrapolate from.
Over the last few weeks, bitcoin’s price action has followed closely in line with regular markets, surprising many and damaging the notion of bitcoin’s lack of correlation. When we started working on this piece, the price of Bitcoin was hovering around $8,000 and in the following 24 hours has fallen more than 25% to $6,000. Global markets are scared and behaving as if investors are running for the exits on almost everything.
Crypto needs a significant amount of new capital to enter the space to break out of the global downtrend that began at the end of 2017. A major question we keep asking is where does that capital come from?
Retail investors entered en-masse during the great crypto bubble of 2017 with huge inflows of capital. As that bubble popped, many of those retail investors lost significant sums of capital and have grown skeptical and impatient with the asset class. Those that remained experienced repeated false excitement of another 2017-style bull market only to be met with incredible selling. This has become maddening for many.
Coronavirus Live Updates: The latest COVID-19 developments in Seattle and the world of tech
We expect that many retail investors are so underwater that “hodling” will persist, but we have limited expectations that they add substantial sums to their positions, particularly as other investments fall off a cliff. Others will give up entirely, the pain of astronomical drawdowns too much to bear.
At $6,000, bitcoin is down ~16% year to date and ~68% from its Dec. 17, 2017 all-time high, underperforming the S&P over that same period of time by ~100%.
The entry of large-scale institutional capital has long been pointed as the saving force since those December 2017 highs. That capital is always believed by many to be just 3-to-6 months away. We believe we are likely much further away from major institutional inflows given the current economic landscape combined with the current regulatory environment, and a number of other issues. Institutional allocators have other fires and little reason to embark on further diligence of a small, speculative, experimental asset class at the moment — particularly one that does not have a sufficient track record or established relationship within the broader system of financial markets.
One argument that you hear frequently is that the looming bitcoin halving will cause a dramatic rise in the value of bitcoin. This has been widely popularized by the “Stock to Flow (S2F) model” — a model we don’t think particularly highly of. A popular narrative within the cryptocurrency space is as follows:
“The halving of mining rewards has the effect of reducing sell pressure from miners which in turn creates an imbalance in supply and demand that then facilitates a dramatic escalation of price.”
With few people buying, and with miners selling, there are enormous headwinds facing the bitcoin markets.
However, after completing an analysis of prior halvings, we found that there is limited impact of a halving event on pricing action. It appears more likely that the return behavior before, during, and after a halving coincided more with increasing levels of speculation than with an underlying shift in sell side pressure.
In our view, it is not possible to make statistically meaningful claims regarding the impact of the halving given that there only exist two prior data points. The last two halvings occurred in 2012 and 2016 with markets (both crypto and traditional) that were dramatically different in nature. Bitcoin has moved from a world of hobbyist miners into the world of industrial-scale miners that utilize all of the financial tools at their disposal (i.e. options, futures, lending). Further, neither of the previous two halvings occurred while the global economy stood on the precipice of a recession.
That said, we do believe the halving will have some measurable impact on the broader cryptocurrency space. Cutting miner income in half creates incredible economic pressures on the mining industry. This industry has thrived with access to cheap credit and the benefit of a significant profit premium over the last few years — two beneficial conditions that are about to come to an end. We believe selling pressure could be on the horizon as miners face a confluence of factors, including damage to balance sheets, limited availability of financing and a reduction of mining rewards.
With few people buying, and with miners selling, there are enormous headwinds facing the bitcoin markets.
Where some see doom and gloom, others see opportunity.
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.” — Theodore Roosevelt
Despite those major headwinds, there will be a recovery, of that we are certain. It is possible the speed of that recovery may disappoint many looking for quick riches. However, bitcoin and the broader digital asset class is here to stay, wild price swings and all. These technologies power an entirely new and fascinating world of assets. Financial rewards exist for those that appreciate the risks and opportunities created by these disruptive assets. There is power in humility and opportunity within crisis.
Expect the unexpected and please be safe out there. (Jesse Proudman)
SIMPLE PREPPER HACKS TO AVOID GETTING THE FLU
The season of traveling is approaching and with it, comes the exposure to germs and the possibility of getting the flu. But there are a few simple hacks preppers have that they use to prevent the sickness.
Most preppers understand that getting sick can be a big deal with the risk of a global pandemic being a tangible threat. Here are a few hacks that will keep you healthy, and most of them won’t cost you much if anything to implement.
- Eat Better – most preppers understand the importance of good nutrition. Eating right and maintaining a healthy body weight while staying in shape will obviously help boost your immune system keeping it tip-top shape to fight off viruses like the flu. Try to choose nutrient-dense vegetables and healthy fats with every meal. Keep your processed food intake to a minimum and limit sugar. Inadequate diets that are low in protein, too low in calories (less than 1,200), or contain too many processed or fast foods will lack all the nutrients necessary to maintain a healthy immune system.
- Get Enough Sleep – 70% of American adults report that they obtain insufficient sleep at least one night a month, and 11% report insufficient sleep every night. It’s well understood that sleep deprivation opens the door to a wide range of illnesses by weakening the body’s immune system, now and in the future. As a culture, we are becoming busier and chronically sleep-deprived and that can affect our body’s ability to fight off the flu or other viruses. So get on a schedule and make sure you are getting enough sleep!
- Change Your Bedding and hand Towels Often – having clean sheets may also help you get more sleep, so this one’s doubly important! Washing your sheets and towels will prevent the spread of germs. Use hot water to launder them, and if you have white sheets or towels, bleaching may be appropriate. Washing your linens will keep you healthier because it kills off a good amount of the germs lingering.
- Sanitize Surfaces – Clean and sanitize the surfaces of your home at least once a week, and do so more often if someone in your home has been sick. The flu virus can live on hard surfaces for 24 hours! To make sure you’ve gotten the surface properly disinfected, use an antibacterial cleaner on key spots such as tabletops, countertops, remote controls, computer keyboards, doorknobs, sinks, light switches, faucet handles, sinks, countertop, tub and toilet (including the entire seat and the toilet handle). To disinfect a surface, wipe it so that the surface remains visibly wet for four minutes and then let it dry.”
- Wash Hands Frequently – To prevent from getting the flu, wash your hands frequently, especially while traveling and around crowds of people. To kill the germs that cause the flu, wash your hands all over with warm water and soap for at least 20 seconds. Everyone should get in the habit of washing their hands after using the bathroom or being in contact with the sick person. You should also wash your hands before eating, and before touching the eyes, nose or mouth as that’s usually how germs enter your body and get you sick!
Hopefully, with these inexpensive hacks, you can prevent yourself and family members from coming down with the flu this year. Even though these things won’t necessarily eliminate the risk of getting sick, you will have a leg up when it comes to fighting the virus!
Thank you Mac Slavo
The Markethive Vault — Unlock Your Potential
The Marketing and Engineering genius and visionary, Thomas Prendergast, CEO, and Douglas Yates, CTO, along with his team is laying the final foundation for the wallet installation — The Markethive Vault.
The Vault is your new bank account and will also replace the current payment center with a far more effective and rewarding system. This will make all your purchases and upgrades easier to manage, giving you rewards and creating a new class of token, likened to a stablecoin, called Markethive Ad Credits, rewarding thrift and savings with discounts and interest paid to you monthly.
The Vault holds Markethive Ad Credits and MHV coin. It will pay interest on your threshold amount, MHV coin you have deposited into the Vault and your Coin Clip balance. It will also be the source to pay for **services. You will be able to fund it automatically or manually by Credit Card, and Bitcoin. Auto Payments can be scheduled to keep a minimum balance to ensure the monthly paid services like the Entrepreneur Upgrade run smoothly.
As well as interest paid, the higher the balance in your vault, the higher your Hive Ranking will go. Higher Hive ranking will unlock additional banners and a new service Markethive is introducing in the near future, The Video Program, where you are paid to watch videos.
What Are The Services?
The **services I am referring to are the Incentivized Loan Program™, Entrepreneur Upgrade, and SNAP Department that are available right now. This will also include Video Advertising, Press Releases, Boost Advertising, in fact, all services in due course.
INCENTIVIZED LOAN PROGRAM™ and ENTREPRENEUR UPGRADE:
The ILP™ is completely and totally compliant to the regulatory and UCC code which means it is not a security. Incentivized Loan Program is a loan. There is no limit to the amount of money you choose to loan Markethive.
The best part is even the small investor can participate by way of the Entrepreneur Program at $100 per month. This earns you a 1/10th share of an ILP for every 12 months that you continuously contribute to the program. That is significant as the ILP will be like a Bitcoin in that it will be able to be broken down into satoshis or bits, ie: 1 millionth of a token. So 1 full ILP equals 1 million ILP tokens or satoshis. More on this in upcoming articles.
This enables Markethive to conduct bounties, rewards, and trading on the ILP. The ILP and Entrepreneur Loyalty Programs simply turns this powerful engine of Markethive into a cash cow.
Additionally, taking part in the Entrepreneur One Loyalty Program unlocks the coming commerce hubs and portals, Banner Ad Program, etc, and the matching MHV Coin Bonus for each of your referrals into Markethive.
THE SNAP DEPARTMENT
S.N.A.P is the acronym for Social Network Auto Poster system. This service is a plugin to your WordPress site and will automatically post your articles and blogs and the blogs you subscribe to, to all your social media and blogging platforms. This gives you incredible reach to enable you to build your brand awareness and presence online.
Furthermore, The Snap Department will become an Advertising Agency and will consist of
- Staff Writers to write articles or a series of autoresponder emails for you.
- Designers to do Banners Ads, images and logos
- Research Department to research for you for marketing purposes
- Professionals to design and set up your word press site
A full-blown Ad Agency which includes Copywriting, direct marketing, consumer marketing, response marketing, blog casting, WordPress development, capture page development, etc.
Markethive is becoming a Media Company.
It is important to note Markethive is not an MLM or affiliate company, it is a referral company. So free members can also benefit greatly by just referring only three people which will activate the faucet or micropayments and Hive Rank. That means you don’t have to spend any money in the system. Simply build it and get rewarded.
The image above is an example of how it will work
How Does The Hive Rank Contribute?
The Hive Rank is responsible for bonuses, bounties, and increases in revenue. This means you will get increased earnings from the faucet. If you’re an entrepreneur upgrade you get an increase on your matching bonus. It will also be responsible for Royal Bee Of The Day which gives you additional rewards for the day. The Hive Rank also plays a big part in the interest you earn in the Vault. The higher your Hive Rank the more interest paid to you.
The Driving Force Of The Vault.
The vault is where the Markethive Advertising Credits will be held. Advertising credits are similar to a stable coin. One Markethive Credit = USD$1. Instead of paying $100 per month for the Entrepreneur Upgrade Program, you will pay 100 Markethive Ad Credits. These credits can be purchased through the Vault via Bitcoin or credit card. In fact, you can pay for anything through the vault such as the Banner Program, SNAP installation, Press Releases, and Sponsored Articles and more as these services are implemented and introduced into the Markethive system.
Also, you can deposit Markethive Coins, (MHV) into the vault and you will earn up to 5% compound interest in MHV, roll it back into the vault and accumulate. This vault credit can be used to buy ILPs or an Entrepreneur Upgrade. By putting it back into the system, Markethive is giving you more value on your Markethive coin and paying you interest on it, similar to Staking.
What Is Staking?
Staking simply stands for holding a cryptocurrency in your wallet for a fixed period, in this case, the Markethive Vault, then earning interest on it. Staking the coins you hold is a relatively easy way to earn more coins. The reward that one earns from staking varies depending on the length of the time and Hive Ranking. So it would be advantageous for you to keep it above the threshold along with an increasing Hive Rank enabling you to earn the maximum amount of interest. The Vault will notify you if you go below the threshold.
So now there are 3 types of currency in Markethive. The Markethive Coin, (MHV) the ILP Tokens, and the Markethive Ad Credits which are always equivalent to $1usd of which you buy products and services with. So the Credits are what buys the services once we are on an exchange and the wallet is launched. And the amount of MHV coin you have determines the interest paid.
By buying up Markethive Coin and banking it in the Vault you are essentially burning the coin and is a good thing as explained in this article on how Markethive creates coin velocity. There are many ways to burn crypto coins which is advantageous to the wealth and health of the coin. In this instance, to burn the Markethive Coin means pulling the coin out of the marketplace and staking or holding it in the Vault, so there’s less supply. The less supply the greater the demand, which in turn increases the price of the coin.
The Vault is designed and implemented prior to the wallet being added. When the Wallet is complete and launched, then the true value of the Markethive coin will be realized. Once the wallet is active, Markethive Ad Credits and MHV Coins can be purchased and transferred over into the Vault. So this is like an online banking system. It’s a savings account with interest paid on it.
It also changes the way you pay for subscriptions. The monthly subscription is debited from the Threshold in the Vault. Your credit card is debited and deposited into your Vault threshold to whatever amount you choose to maintain your chosen threshold and the payments debited. This also eliminates the issues caused by direct credit card payments and banks blocking your transaction.
Where Are We At Right Now?
The major aspects of the Vault have now been installed onto the Markethive platform. The Vault icon can be seen on the header of your Markethive page, next to the Hive Rank Symbol. Clicking on it will take you to the Vault page. This is the very foundation of the Markethive Wallet, the ILP, in fact, the entire system. We are very close now to launching the very heart of our ecosystem.
Keep in mind the more you use the vault the higher the interest rate. The more you use the system the higher the interest rate. The four facets that are scored for stake interest are Hive Rank, Coin Clip score, Loyalty Level, and Attendance Bonus. Also, total interest is paid on both your vault balance and coin clip balance and the interest on this combined total is paid at the end of each month.
The Vault Services
The Payment Center is being replaced with a far more advanced, effective and rewarding system called The Vault. This makes your purchases and monthly subscriptions easier to manage and is also creating a new class of exchange called Markethive Ad Credits. It will reward your thriftiness and using it as a bank account will earn you discounts and monthly interest. Interest has already been paid for this month and you will see extra MHV in your coin clip noted as Interest Credit in your payment settings.
The Vault Statement is like a bank statement where all Vault activity is recorded, such as purchases, thresholds, funding, interest, bounties, autopay, etc. This can be viewed in your Markethive account in The Vault section and exported, saved and printed for your records.
The Vault Multiplier is now active and where the fun starts. Play the HI/LO game and increase the amount of MHVs in your coin clip — up to 1000x. There is a 0% house edge which means neither Markethive or yourself has any built-in mathematical advantage over the long term. All rolls are provably fair so there is no way of altering the outcome.
The Vault Subscriptions give you total control to maintain all your loyalty programs monthly or yearly subscriptions. You can create new ones, update credit cards, pay with Bitcoin, pause or cancel and much more.
The Vault Schematic is where we dissect, illustrate and edify the many aspects of the Vault Gauge Icon (seen up in your page header). So you know the health of your account at a glance.
Feed The Vault – This is where you can purchase Markethive Ad Credits and store them in your vault to pay for any of your monthly or yearly loyalty programs, press releases, banner ads or any other advertising program available to Markethive members. Remember the more you use the Vault, the higher the percentage of interest paid to you.
As stated above, the fundamentals of the Vault can now be viewed on the Markethive platform, however, there is still some tweaking being done and of course, our engineers are now working on getting the wallet in place ready for all systems go!
Your Future With Markethive
The future is bright for Markethive and You. This is an ingenious way to ensure the long-term sustainability of the Markethive Ecosystem while the MHV Coin inevitably increases in value, securing your success and prosperity within the realms of Markethive and beyond. Stay tuned for all the updates as they come to hand. Please attend our weekly live meetings hosted by the CEO, Thomas Prendergast, and CTO, Douglas Yates for all the exciting news and information. The date, time and link to the Markethive Zoom Room can be found in the menu at the top of your markethive home page under Calendar. See you there!
A Crypto/Blockchain enthusiast and a strong advocate for technology, progress, and freedom of speech. I embrace "change" with a passion and my purpose in life is to help people understand, accept and move forward with enthusiasm to achieve their goals.
There is a lot offered in Markethive’s Entrepreneur One loyalty program. Among the many financial advantages, I want to focus on and edify for you our Banner Ad Exchange. But this is not your typical banner exchange. This is more like a coin exchange. Let me explain.
Markethive’s Banner Exchange will use Markethive’s coin to purchase banner impressions and the banner impressions have been made fungible.
Definition of fungible.: being something (such as money or a commodity) of such a nature that one part or quantity may be replaced by another equal part or quantity in paying a debt or settling an account Oil, wheat, lumber, ad impressions are fungible commodities.
So you see the Markethive Banner Exchange is in no way anything like the traditional Banner Exchanges of the past, where participating sites display banner ads in exchange for credits which are converted (using a predetermined exchange rate) into ads to be displayed on other sites.
Markethive’s Banner Exchange will work like a Crypto Exchange: Cryptocurrency exchanges are websites where you can buy, sell or exchange cryptocurrencies for other digital currency or traditional currency like US dollars or Euro.
In other words, Impressions will be represented as a token and will be paired to the Markethive coin. Impressions value will be determined by an open market (the exchange) Paid for with the Markethive coin where the value is also determined by the open market (listed on many exchanges). This sophistication is possible by our proprietary technology that allows us to deliver to our member’s business platforms that are dynamic, fast and extremely profitable. The Markethive Banner Exchange is a first of its kind and is being produced and delivered by Markethive and limited to 500 members of the Entrepreneur One Loyalty upgrade.
Value of such systems is easily determined with Alexa Ranking. Alexa ranking tracks visits and page impressions. Page impressions are the currency in banner advertising. In general the cost of quality impressions is .035 per or $35 per 1000 impressions.
Markethive's (Alexa) traffic ranking is growing exponentially and just recently entered into the 5000 range indicating huge incoming traffic and we continue to explode in growth.
The average small business using online advertising spends between $9,000 and $10,000 per month on their online advertising campaigns. That's $100,000 to $120,000 per year.
Summary: The Markethive member who has an Entrepreneur One loyalty membership can expect to be in good profit for the lifetime of the membership just from the Banner Exchange system. When we reach 10 million subscribers and Alexa rank of 196 like Okta.com we can expect monthly page impressions to exceed 2.5 billion. One E1 account will control 1/500th that being 5 million. Do the math @ .01 per impression would equal a monthly revenue just from the banner impressions of $50,000 and this is every month for life (fluxuations can be expected).
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